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Rebecca Murray

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Two Final Predictions

So far I've concentrated on the acting honors and have revealed my predictions for who will win the Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress Oscars. As the clock ticks down to the gala event, I'm ready to disclose my predictions for the Best Director and Best Picture Academy Award winners.

First, let's look at the director race. It's an incredible group honored this year, with a real mix of veterans and newbies. First-time director Tony Gilroy hit one out of the park with Michael Clayton, but he's not favored to win an Oscar for his rookie effort. Equally deserving but unlikely to have to clear a space on his mantelpiece is Juno director Jason Reitman. Reitman, the son of producer/director Ivan Reitman, delivered one of the most entertaining and smart movies of the year, however screenwriter Diablo Cody is probably going to be the one taking the stage on behalf of the critically acclaimed indie, not Reitman.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly helmer Julian Schnabel earned his first Oscar nomination by following in the footsteps of Clint Eastwood, another American who was nominated for directing a foreign language film (Diving Bell is in French; Letters from Iwo Jima is in Japanese). Schnabel won the Golden Globe for Best Director, but he's not generating as much buzz as the filmmakers who brought us No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. And that's where deciding which way the Academy will go gets difficult. Anderson's a visionary filmmaker who always works outside the box. But the There Will Be Blood director will probably have to be satisfied with seeing his film's star, Daniel Day-Lewis, deliver a thank you speech. The Coen Brothers have momentum on their side and I just don't see any stopping the No Country for Old Men train.

My final prediction is in the Best Picture category. Let's cut to the chase here. Atonement peaked early, Michael Clayton is a great film but hasn't generated passionate supporters pushing its cause, and There Will Be Blood has been mentioned more for its acting and direction than anything else. That leaves just Juno and No Country for Old Men. It's interesting that of all the Best Picture nominees, only one is a light-hearted, positive film. The rest are an extremely dark lot. Juno could pull off a surprise win because it is so different in tone than its competition. Decisions, decisions... Juno is my personal favorite, but, again, I think support for No Country for Old Men is strong enough to earn the Coens the top trophy on Sunday night.
Friday February 22, 2008 | comments (1)

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